When Markets Beat the Polls.

ELECTRONIC markets; ELECTION forecasting; PUBLIC opinion polls; ECONOMIC forecasting; MARKETS; INTERNET marketing; SECURITIES; FUTURES market

This article reports on Internet-based prediction markets and how they predict election outcomes more successfully than polls. The article discusses the development of an economic theory-driven market that trades on candidates and how it became popular through the 1990s to 2008. Projections on future use of the Iowa Electronic Market, related to issues including elections, policies, and popularity, are made as well. The market's accuracy, as well as how to use it, are also discussed. INSET: MARKETS VS. POLLS.