Characterizing local-scale heterogeneity of malaria risk: a case study in Bunkpurugu-Yunyoo district in northern Ghana.

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  • Additional Information
    • Source:
      Publisher: BioMed Central Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101139802 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1475-2875 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 14752875 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Malar J Subsets: MEDLINE
    • Publication Information:
      Original Publication: London : BioMed Central, [2002-
    • Subject Terms:
      Topography, Medical*; Malaria/*epidemiology; Child, Preschool ; Female ; Ghana/epidemiology ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Prevalence ; Risk Assessment ; Spatial Analysis
    • Abstract:
      Background: Bayesian methods have been used to generate country-level and global maps of malaria prevalence. With increasing availability of detailed malaria surveillance data, these methodologies can also be used to identify fine-scale heterogeneity of malaria parasitaemia for operational prevention and control of malaria.
      Methods: In this article, a Bayesian geostatistical model was applied to six malaria parasitaemia surveys conducted during rainy and dry seasons between November 2010 and 2013 to characterize the micro-scale spatial heterogeneity of malaria risk in northern Ghana.
      Results: The geostatistical model showed substantial spatial heterogeneity, with malaria parasite prevalence varying between 19 and 90%, and revealing a northeast to southwest gradient of predicted risk. The spatial distribution of prevalence was heavily influenced by two modest urban centres, with a substantially lower prevalence in urban centres compared to rural areas. Although strong seasonal variations were observed, spatial malaria prevalence patterns did not change substantially from year to year. Furthermore, independent surveillance data suggested that the model had a relatively good predictive performance when extrapolated to a neighbouring district.
      Conclusions: This high variability in malaria prevalence is striking, given that this small area (approximately 30 km × 40 km) was purportedly homogeneous based on country-level spatial analysis, suggesting that fine-scale parasitaemia data might be critical to guide district-level programmatic efforts to prevent and control malaria. Extrapolations results suggest that fine-scale parasitaemia data can be useful for spatial predictions in neighbouring unsampled districts and does not have to be collected every year to aid district-level operations, helping to alleviate concerns regarding the cost of fine-scale data collection.
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    • Contributed Indexing:
      Keywords: Bayesian; Fine-scale; Geostatistical; Ghana; Malaria
    • Publication Date:
      Date Created: 20190317 Date Completed: 20190422 Latest Revision: 20200225
    • Publication Date:
      20240105
    • Accession Number:
      PMC6420752
    • Accession Number:
      10.1186/s12936-019-2703-4
    • Accession Number:
      30876413