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Modelling household well-being and poverty trajectories: An application to coastal Bangladesh.
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- Author(s): Lázár AN;Lázár AN; Adams H; Adams H; Adger WN; Adger WN; Nicholls RJ; Nicholls RJ
- Source:
PloS one [PLoS One] 2020 Sep 04; Vol. 15 (9), pp. e0238621. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Sep 04 (Print Publication: 2020).- Publication Type:
Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't- Language:
English - Source:
- Additional Information
- Source: Publisher: Public Library of Science Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 101285081 Publication Model: eCollection Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1932-6203 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 19326203 NLM ISO Abbreviation: PLoS One Subsets: MEDLINE
- Publication Information: Original Publication: San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science
- Subject Terms:
- Abstract: Resource-based livelihoods are uncertain and potentially unstable due to variability over time, including seasonal variation: this instability threatens marginalised populations who may fall into poverty. However, empirical understanding of trajectories of household well-being and poverty is limited. Here, we present a new household-level model of poverty dynamics based on agents and coping strategies-the Household Economy And Poverty trajectory (HEAP) model. HEAP is based on established economic and social insights into poverty dynamics, with a demonstration of the model calibrated with a qualitative and quantitative household survey in coastal Bangladesh. Economic activity in Bangladesh is highly dependent on natural resources; poverty is widespread; and there is high variability in ecosystem services at multiple temporal scales. The results show that long-term decreases in poverty are predicated more on the stability of, and returns from, livelihoods rather than their diversification. Access to natural resources and ecosystem service benefits are positively correlated with stable income and multidimensional well-being. Households that remain in poverty are those who experience high seasonality of income and are involved in small scale enterprises. Hence, seasonal variability in income places significant limits on natural resources providing routes out of poverty. Further, projected economic trends to 2030 lead to an increase in well-being and a reduction in poverty for most simulated household types.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. - References: Sci Data. 2016 Nov 08;3:160094. (PMID: 27824340)
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Sustain Sci. 2016;11(3):423-439. (PMID: 30174735) - Publication Date: Date Created: 20200904 Date Completed: 20201028 Latest Revision: 20231104
- Publication Date: 20240104
- Accession Number: PMC7473571
- Accession Number: 10.1371/journal.pone.0238621
- Accession Number: 32886732
- Source:
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