Predicted range shifts of invasive giant hogweed (Heracleum mantegazzianum) in Europe.

Publisher: Elsevier Country of Publication: Netherlands NLM ID: 0330500 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1879-1026 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 00489697 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Sci Total Environ Subsets: MEDLINE

Original Publication: Amsterdam, Elsevier.

Heracleum*; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; Temperature

Heracleum mantegazzianum Sommier & Levier (Giant hogweed) has spread across Europe after its introduction as an ornamental from the native range in the Western Greater Caucasus. In addition to its invasive capability, H. mantegazzianum reduces the alpha diversity of native species in the non-native range and can cause second-degree burns when its phytotoxic sap contacts the skin upon exposure to sunlight. Previous studies on H. mantegazzianum distribution focused on individual countries, therefore we know little about the potential shift of the species distribution under changing climate at the continental scale. To fill that gap in the current knowledge, we aimed to (i) identify the most important climatic factors for the distribution of H. mantegazzianum in Europe, (ii) recognize areas that will be suitable and unsuitable for future climate scenarios to prioritize management action. Our study showed that the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11) and temperature annual range (bio7) were the most important bioclimatic variables predicting the suitable habitat of the species in Europe. For all scenarios, we found that the majority of the range changes expected by 2100 will occur as early as 2041. We predicted an overall decrease in climatically suitable area for H. mantegazzianum under climate change with over three quarters (i.e. 94%) of the suitable area reduced under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 585 in 2100. However, under the same scenario, climate conditions will likely favour the expansion (i.e. 20%) of H. mantegazzianum in northern Europe. The results from the present study will help in developing a climate change-integrated management strategy, most especially in northern Europe where range expansion is predicted.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare no competing interests.
(Copyright © 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Keywords: Bioclimatic modeling; Biological invasions; Europe; MaxEnt; Range shifts; Species distribution models

Date Created: 20220226 Date Completed: 20220427 Latest Revision: 20220427

20240105

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154053

35217057