Planning as Bargaining: The Causal Impacts of Plans in Seattle and San Francisco.

SAN Francisco (Calif.); SEATTLE (Wash.); WESTERN Australia

Why would plans have an impact on the built environment when their provisions can be revisited in the context of individual development decisions? I examined the causal impacts of transit-oriented development (TOD) plans in San Francisco (CA) and Seattle (WA) using a mixed methods approach, combining qualitative interviews and a quantitative regression discontinuity design. I found that the Market and Octavia Plan in San Francisco had a substantial impact on development outcomes, increasing densities and reducing parking ratios not just within the plan boundaries but also in adjacent neighborhoods. In Seattle, although parking ratios declined and densities rose over time, it is harder to attribute these trends to the TOD plans studied here, which constituted a small part of the city's overall planning program. Beyond zoning changes, I identified two mechanisms through which plans exert an impact. First, in a city where development approvals are not by-right, plans can act as an anchor point for bargaining among developers, city staff, and community members. Second, plans can serve as laboratories of innovation, enabling experimentation with new policies that can later be extended to adjacent communities. These findings, however, may not extend to places where zoning provides by-right development permission or where community members are implacably opposed to new development. Planners should consider the mechanisms through which plans exert causal impacts. In particular, they should strive for plans that provide a lasting compromise and leave limited incentives for stakeholders to reopen controversial debates in the context of individual project approvals. Planners can also use TOD and similar plans as sites of experimentation and innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of the American Planning Association is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)