DETERMINANTS OF HOUSEHOLD MIGRATION: A COMPARATIVE STUDY BY RACE AND POVERTY LEVEL.

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    • Abstract:
      This analysis yields three general conclusions. First, the strong influence of economic incentives noted in models of aggregate interstate migration has been reaffirmed in the analysis of individual migration behavior. Further refinement of the expected gain measure appears warranted. Second, the analysis demonstrates that the often noted racial differences in migration behavior may not provide an adequate basis for generalizations about the poor either in terms of overall migration levels or in responses to specific determinants. The pessimistic connotation of the nonwhite analysis, that low income households are only marginally influenced by the economic costs and benefits of moving, is strongly refuted. The model explains the variation in the migration behavior of the poor more than twice as well as that of the nonwhite. Moreover, the effects of age, family size, and especially family income are substantially more pronounced. A greater emphasis on specifying the appropriate target population when evaluating the effects of public policy is indicated. Third, public policies may have significant effects on the migration behavior of the poor. Programs such as the negative income tax effectively relax the cost and risk constraints facing poor households. Such an effect, approximated in part by the family income response, would induce additional migration. The even stronger response to the expected gain measure emphasizes the importance of long-run economic incentives as a motivating factor. Policies ranging from area redevelopment to negative income tax benefits which alter relative economic opportunities between areas will undoubtedly have a strong, if unintended, influence on migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
    • Abstract:
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