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The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle.
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- Author(s): Barsky, Robert B.; Miron, Jeffrey A.
- Source:
Journal of Political Economy; Jun89, Vol. 97 Issue 3, p503, 32p- Subject Terms:
- Source:
- Additional Information
- Subject Terms:
- Abstract: Almost all recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations has worked with seasonally adjusted or annual data. This paper takes a different approach by treating seasonal fluctuations as worthy of study in their own right. Our results show that seasonal fluctuations are an important source of variation in all macroeconomic quantity variables but are small or entirely absent in both real and nominal price variables. The timing of the seasonal fluctuations consists of increases in the second and fourth quarters, a large decrease in the first quarter, and a mild decrease in the third quarter. The paper demonstrates that, with respect to each of several major stylized facts about business cycles, the seasonal cycle displays the same characteristics as the business cycle, in some cases even more dramatically than the business cycle. That is, we find that at seasonal frequencies as well as at business cycle frequencies, output movements across broadly defined sectors move together, the timing of production and the timing of sales coincide closely, labor productivity is procyclical, nominal money and real output are highly correlated, and prices vary less than quantities. There is a "seasonal business cycle" in the U.S. economy, and its characteristics closely mirror those of the conventional business cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Abstract: Copyright of Journal of Political Economy is the property of University of Chicago and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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