Dinámica del consumo de gasolina en Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua.

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  • Additional Information
    • Subject Terms:
      ENERGY consumption; GASOLINE; GAS prices; ECONOMICS; MEXICAN economy; ECONOMIC history
    • Subject Terms:
      CIUDAD Juarez (Mexico); MEXICAN-American Border Region; MEXICO
    • Abstract:
      This research analyzes short-run gasoline consumption dynamics in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, Mexico. Parameter estimation is carried out using linear transfer function ARIMA analysis. This market is of interest because it is influenced by regional, national, and international economic conditions due to its location on the border with the United States. Explanatory variables that satisfy the significance criterion include the real price of gasoline in Ciudad Juárez, the price of gasoline in Ciudad Juárez relative to that charged across the border in el Paso, Texas, USA, and formal sector employment in Ciudad Juarez. Out-of-sample simulations indicate that the model is relatively accurate for forecasts of to 1 to 24 months into the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
    • Abstract:
      Este estudio analiza la dinámica del consumo de la gasolina en la economía metropolitana de Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico. El análisis se lleva a cabo con la estimación de parametros con la metodología de funciones de transferencia lineales ARIMA. Este mercado es de interés ya que se observan influencias de condiciones económicas regionales, nacionales e internacionales. Variables que resultan significativas incluyen el precio real de la gasolina en Ciudad Juarez, el precio de la gasolina en Ciudad Juarez en relación con el precio de El Paso, Texas, EE.UU., y el empleo en Ciudad Juarez. Simulaciones fuera de muestra indican que el modelo es relativamente preciso en las proyecciones de uno a 24 meses de longitud. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
    • Abstract:
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