Future changes in society and climate may strongly shape wild large-herbivore faunas across Europe.

Publisher: Royal Society Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 7503623 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1471-2970 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 09628436 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci Subsets: MEDLINE

Original Publication: London : Royal Society, 1934-

Ecosystem* ; Herbivory*; Humans ; Biodiversity ; Body Weight ; Balkan Peninsula ; Climate Change

Restoring wild communities of large herbivores is critical for the conservation of biodiverse ecosystems, but environmental changes in the twenty-first century could drastically affect the availability of habitats. We projected future habitat dynamics for 18 wild large herbivores in Europe and the relative future potential patterns of species richness and assemblage mean body weight considering four alternative scenarios of socioeconomic development in human society and greenhouse gas emissions (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP3-RCP7.0, SSP5-RCP8.5). Under SSP1-RCP2.6, corresponding to a transition towards sustainable development, we found stable habitat suitability for most species and overall stable assemblage mean body weight compared to the present, with an average increase in species richness (in 2100: 3.03 ± 1.55 compared to today's 2.25 ± 1.31 species/area). The other scenarios are generally unfavourable for the conservation of wild large herbivores, although under the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario there would be increase in species richness and assemblage mean body weight in some southern regions (e.g. + 62.86 kg mean body weight in Balkans/Greece). Our results suggest that a shift towards a sustainable socioeconomic development would overall provide the best prospect of our maintaining or even increasing the diversity of wild herbivore assemblages in Europe, thereby promoting trophic complexity and the potential to restore functioning and self-regulating ecosystems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

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Keywords: conservation; future scenarios; large herbivores; megafauna; restoration; socioeconomic scenarios

Date Created: 20240407 Date Completed: 20240409 Latest Revision: 20240410

20240410

PMC10999261

10.1098/rstb.2023.0334

38583466