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Causality in structural vector autoregressions: Science or sorcery?
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- Author(s): Ghanem, Dalia; Smith, Aaron
- Source:
American Journal of Agricultural Economics; May2022, Vol. 104 Issue 3, p881-904, 24p, 3 Diagrams, 3 Charts, 3 Graphs- Subject Terms:
- Source:
- Additional Information
- Abstract: This paper presents the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) as a method for estimating dynamic causal effects in agricultural and resource economics. We have a pedagogical purpose; we aim the presentation at economists trained primarily in microeconometrics. The SVAR is a model of a system, whereas a reduced‐form microeconometric study aims to estimate the causal effect of one variable on another. The system approach produces estimates of a complete set of causal relationships among the variables, but it requires strong assumptions to do so. We explain these assumptions and describe similarities and differences with the classical instrumental variables (IV) model. We demonstrate that the population analogue of the Wald IV estimator for a particular causal effect is identical to the ratio of two impulse responses from an SVAR. We further demonstrate that incorrect identification assumptions about some components of the SVAR do not necessarily invalidate the estimated causal effects of other components. We present an SVAR analysis of global supply and demand for agricultural commodities, which was previously examined using IV. We illustrate the additional economic insights that the SVAR reveals, and we articulate the additional assumptions upon which those insights rest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Abstract: Copyright of American Journal of Agricultural Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
- Abstract:
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